What is the average industrial cap rate in Austin in 2026?

Austin industrial properties traded at an average cap rate of roughly 7.5–7.6% as of early 2026 (CoStar data, Q1 2026 market reports). Stabilized, newer logistics assets in growth submarkets price at the tighter end of the range, while vacant or partially leased properties trade wider to compensate buyers for lease-up risk.

Why is Austin industrial vacancy so high in 2026?

A record construction wave that began in 2022 delivered supply faster than tenants absorbed it. Overall vacancy reached roughly 14.5–15.7% in Q1 2026 — a 20-year high — and 82% of the 1.9 million sq ft delivered in Q1 arrived vacant. Pressure is concentrated in big-box speculative logistics space; smaller infill product and submarkets like Bastrop County (3.7% vacancy) remain comparatively tight.

Is now a good time to buy industrial property in Austin?

Pricing has reset: average sale prices ran roughly $143–$173 per sq ft over the past year, cap rates are in the mid-7s, and sellers face a tenant's market. Near-term lease-up risk is real, but long-term demand drivers — Samsung's 2.8M SF Taylor fab, ~43,000 new residents a year, sub-4% unemployment — remain intact. Whether a specific deal works depends on basis, tenancy, and submarket; run the numbers deal by deal.

Market insight · June 12, 2026 · Steven Owen

Austin industrial cap rates and market outlook (Q2 2026)

Austin industrial cap rates average roughly 7.5–7.6% as of early 2026 (CoStar data via Q1 2026 market reports), with recent sales pricing around $143–$173 per square foot depending on asset quality and dataset. The market is working through a historic supply wave: overall vacancy hit 14.5–15.7% in Q1 2026 — a 20-year high — and asking rents are flat to slightly negative at roughly $14.17–$14.43/SF NNN. Stabilized, modern assets in growth submarkets still command premiums; vacant big-box space trades at a discount. It is a tenant's market and, increasingly, a buyer's market.

Where Austin industrial cap rates are clearing

CoStar-tracked sales put the Austin industrial average cap rate at about 7.6% heading into 2026, with roughly 98 industrial and flex properties trading over the trailing year. The single average hides a wide spread: institutional buyers are paying premiums for stabilized, newer logistics product in growth submarkets, while vacant or partially leased buildings trade wider — buyers are pricing in real lease-up time. Nationally, CBRE's H2 2025 Cap Rate Survey found nearly half of industrial investors believe cap rates have peaked and expect compression ahead, which is consistent with the institutional capital that has quietly re-entered the Austin market.

The numbers, dated and sourced

Austin industrial market snapshot, Q1 2026 (CoStar data via Matthews and Partners RE quarterly reports, May 2026)
Metric	Q1 2026	Context
Average cap rate	~7.5–7.6%	Trailing-year sales; stabilized assets tighter, vacant wider
Average sale price	$143–$173/SF	Range reflects dataset and asset quality
Overall vacancy	14.5–15.7%	20-year high; above the prior 15.3% record (Q3 2003)
Asking rent (NNN, all types)	$14.17–$14.43/SF	Down ~1.1% year-over-year
Warehouse/distribution rent	~$12.60–$12.74/SF	Flex ~$18.92; manufacturing ~$11.79
Under construction	13.2–15.3M SF	Concentrated in Round Rock/Hutto/Taylor (~4.0M SF)
Q1 deliveries	1.9M SF	82% delivered vacant
Q1 net absorption	~123K–678K SF	Positive but well below the delivery pace

Submarket dispersion is the real story. Georgetown (28.4%) and the Southeast (28.2%) carry the heaviest vacancy from speculative big-box deliveries, while Bastrop County sits at just 3.7%. Two buildings ten miles apart are living in different markets.

What's driving it: supply, not demand

Demand hasn't broken — it's the denominator that exploded. Tenants are still signing: Baer Manufacturing took 606,000 SF at Crosspoint Phase II and ZT Systems leased 412,000 SF at GTX Logistics Park in Q1. But the construction wave that started in 2022 added supply faster than even Austin's growth could absorb, and the pipeline is still rising. The long-term anchors are unchanged: Samsung's 2.8M SF semiconductor fab in Taylor is pulling a supplier ecosystem into Round Rock/Hutto/Taylor, the metro is adding roughly 43,000 residents a year, and unemployment sits at 3.7% — below both the state and national rates.

What this means for you

Buyers: the basis opportunity is real. Mid-7 cap rates and reset pricing on quality assets are a different entry point than 2022. Underwrite lease-up conservatively in Georgetown and the Southeast; pay up (selectively) for stabilized product near the Samsung corridor.
Sellers: price to the vacancy reality, not to 2022. Stabilized buildings with term still command premiums — tenancy, not square footage, is what you're selling. If your building has roll in the next 24 months, address it before you go to market.
Owners/landlords: it's a tenant's market. Defend occupancy with early renewals and realistic face rates; a signed tenant at $12.50 beats twelve months of vacancy chasing $14.

How SCORE reads the industrial market

Steven Owen underwrites industrial deals the way an engineer with an NYU Stern finance MBA would — cap rate math, lease-by-lease tenancy risk, and submarket supply data, not narrative. SCORE tracks Travis and Hays County industrial parcels in a proprietary database and markets to a 1,700+ developer and investor network, with closed corridor transactions from US-290 frontage to IH-35 commercial sites. These figures get refreshed quarterly — the Q3 update will publish in September.

Buying or selling Austin industrial?

Get a current, submarket-specific read on cap rates and value — not a stale average.

Book a consultation Tell us your buy box

Figures are directional, dated Q1 2026, and sourced from CoStar data via Matthews REIS and Partners Real Estate quarterly reports (May 2026) and CBRE's H2 2025 Cap Rate Survey. Markets move; this is general information, not investment, tax, or legal advice. Related: Industrial · Austin Market · development land values.